How long do bull markets typically last?

Last Updated on October 19, 2025

Key Takeaways

• A bull market starts when major stock indexes gain at least 20% from recent lows and is sustained by widespread involvement, bullishness, and robust economic numbers. Apply the 20% rule on popular indices to identify definitive changes in market cycles.
• So for how long do bull markets typically last? Bull markets last an average of 1,011 days or roughly three years, though some have persisted for only a few months and others for more than a decade. Expect a range, not averages, by constructing a strategy that operates across varying timeframes.
• Healthy GDP growth, rising earnings, and low unemployment can often extend bull runs by fueling confidence and demand for stocks. Follow macro indicators and observe shifts in inflation, employment, and profit trends.
• Investor psychology matters, from optimism to FOMO and overconfidence, which can drive prices beyond fundamentals. Stick to your plan, automate your contributions, and don’t chase momentum at the top.
• Bull markets tend to conclude as growth decelerates, policy constricts, or market breadth fades and sentiment cautions. Look for warning signs such as declining volumes, failed breakouts, and divergences in technical indicators to defend profits.
• Navigate with discipline. Stay invested, diversify regionally and by sector, and rebalance quarterly or annually. Match your asset mix to long term objectives and tweak slowly as things change.

Bull markets last four to six years on average, depending on the time period measured. Since 1926, a number of studies place the average around seven years, while post-1950 numbers run closer to four to five years.

The 2009–2020 U.S. Run was approximately 11 years, while 1982–1987 ran for only five. Short bursts pop up as well, similar to 2020–22, at around 21 months.

Duration changes with earnings growth, rates, and shocks. The chapters chart the data, terminology, and catalysts.

What Defines a Bull Market?

It’s a run of increasing stock values, validated by an upward trend that may last days, months, or even years. The typical indicator is an increase of 20% or more from a recent low, supported by widespread involvement and consistent purchasing. It relies on optimism and good numbers and broad-based, not just a handful of big name, advances.

It’s the opposite of a bear market, which goes down and thrives on fear.

The 20% Rule

A new bull market is considered to have commenced when a major index rises 20% from its last low, providing a clear benchmark for traders to identify a turning point in the market cycle from a downturn. Analysts apply this guideline to broad-based indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite, as these indexes reflect extensive areas of the economy rather than specific sectors. This simple rule indicates that a rise of 20% or more signifies a bull market, while a drop of 20% or more indicates a bear market.

However, it’s important to note that real market trends seldom move in a linear fashion. A single good day does not define a bull market, and a significant surge in the morning can often be followed by a major decline before the market closes. Markets can even retest previous lows after surpassing the 20% threshold, which is why confirmation of these movements usually arrives retrospectively. Historical data reveals that average bull runs have lasted approximately 9.6 months to 3.8 years, with some extending beyond 12 years, generating substantial gains for investors.

Between market cycles, bulls have typically surged around 115% over an average time frame of 2.7 years, while bear markets have seen declines of about 35%, usually concluding in under a year. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing a successful investing strategy and navigating market reversals.

Economic Health

Markets scale more readily when the real economy is on solid ground. Robust GDP growth, increasing corporate profits, and low unemployment leave companies ample space to grow and investors ample incentive to be bold.

Common signs that support bull markets include:

• GDP growing at a steady pace
• Profits rising across sectors
• Low to moderate unemployment
• Manageable inflation and stable policy
• Healthy credit markets and improving earnings outlooks

When these signals align, demand for stocks often increases, which sustains extended bull market runs. Even then, bull markets can have corrections of 10 percent or swift sell-offs that seem dramatic but do not reach the 20 percent decline that defines a bear trend.

Investor Psychology

Optimism and confidence can set the tone. All that means that when investors lean into risk, new buyers step in, volume picks up, and prices push higher. Momentum attracts crowds.

Herd behavior can magnify moves, and squeezes can force shorts to cover. That stampede can add rocket fuel to the ascent. The flip side is excess: when belief outruns earnings and cash flows, prices can detach from value and build bubbles that later break.

Identifying a bull in real time is difficult because initial rallies may subside, dip back to test lows, and then surge again before conviction appears in the data.

How Long Do Bull Markets Last?

The mean S&P 500 bull market since 1929 has lasted approximately 1,011 days, or just shy of three years, though the distribution is broad. Some have run for weeks, while others have extended for more than a decade. With a blend of economic, policy, and global forces influencing market trends, no two cycles are alike, and the recent bull market phases have lasted longer than earlier ones.

1. Historical Averages

Bull markets have lasted 2.7 years on average, versus bear markets that averaged 286 days. There have been 27 bull markets since 1928, and history says bulls are stronger and longer than bears. We call a new bull one that starts once price increases at least 20% off the most recent market bottom, a formation that can take weeks or months to loom.

Three of the previous ten bull markets continued past 2,000 days, indicating that current market dynamics can sustain long rallies. Bulls at the beginning of the 20th century rarely made it past 200 days, a reminder of how market plumbing, policy and global growth now influence lengthier arcs.

In 20 of 27 bull markets (roughly 74%), the first half ended up beating the second.

2. Economic Drivers

Extended bull markets tend to be powered by widespread economic growth, increasing earnings, and consistent consumer optimism. Low inflation environments with steady job growth give businesses the space to invest and protect margins, which supports higher stock prices.

Global trends matter as well. When big emerging markets expand, U.S. Firms with global footprints experience demand increases, supporting the uptrend. Shocks, such as oil spikes, credit stress, and recessions, can end that run quickly.

3. Monetary Policy

Accommodative policy — low policy rates, ample bank reserves and QE — keeps borrowing costs low and backs risk-taking in equities. When money is cheap, companies finance initiatives, buy back shares and lift guidance, which prolongs the cycle.

Central banks can pull the brake, too. Tightening policy via rate hikes or balance-sheet runoff raises discount rates and is a hallmark of late-cycle conditions. Hints from the Fed or the ECB and others typically presage inflections.

4. Technological Shifts

Big breakthroughs like the internet, the cloud, and now AI can plant the seeds for new bulls. Productivity gains from tech adoption can fuel earnings growth for years.

New sectors arise, capital moves in, and index weights move as leaders fade. Rapid innovation can buoy sentiment and stretch timelines beyond what previous playbooks indicate.

5. Global Events

Geopolitical calm and broad global growth extend bull markets. Wars, pandemics, or energy shocks may disrupt momentum and reset valuations.

Connected markets imply policy or demand shocks overseas echo into U.S. Prices. Trade deals, regulation shifts, and global crises influence not only the velocity but the duration of every cycle.

Bull Markets Across History

A bull market starts when prices increase at least 20% from a market low. Since 1928, there have been 27 such runs, and they are not all alike. The S&P 500 has historically gained roughly 114% in bulls. Among cycles, the mean is close to 115% in 2.7 years, while bears have lost approximately 35% in under one year.

The longest bull spanned beyond 12 years and gained 582%. The shortest lasted 25 days and appreciated 27%. Early bursts matter. The first month of a new bull has averaged 13.6% and the first three months 25.3%. About 74% of the time, the first half trumps the second half.

Post-War Boom

Post World War II, factories transitioned from producing munitions to manufacturing homes, cars, and appliances. This shift created a bull phase where pent-up demand converged with rising wages, and production surged across various sectors, from steel to consumer products. Governments invested in infrastructure, which propped up employment and enhanced long-term productivity, ultimately fueling consistent earnings growth in the stock market.

In the US, the GI Bill provided education and housing assistance for returning soldiers, which grew the skilled workforce and home ownership, further buoying retail and construction. Similar support programs elsewhere helped rebuild industry and trade, contributing to a robust market cycle.

This wide foundation established the practice for contemporary buy-and-hold investing strategies. Daily savings, pensions, and index exposure surged as markets rose with the real economy, reflecting positive investor sentiment rather than a fleeting trend.

As a result, investors began to recognize the importance of asset allocation and long-term strategies in navigating market downturns, ensuring that their investment decisions would withstand the test of time.

Dot-Com Era

The late-1990s bull rode a wave of new tech—affordable computing power, global networks and the commercial internet. Young companies went public rapidly, and money pursued a dream of unlimited expansion.

Tech-laden indexes jumped, and valuations decoupled from cash flows. In too many markets, price-to-earnings ratios departed from history, and revenue-less start-ups raised large amounts of capital.

When funding dried up and growth objectives faltered, the dot-com bubble popped, bringing the bull abruptly to a halt. The takeaway wasn’t that tech doesn’t fuel bulls; it does, but profits and unit economics still ground price.

Investors learned to look at burn rates, business models and adoption curves, not just user numbers.

Post-2008 Recovery

The 2009–2020 run, almost 4,000 days, ranked among the longest on record. Central banks employed low policy rates and large-scale bond purchases to stabilize credit, while companies reduced expenses, digitized processes and increased profitability.

Cloud services, smartphones and software subscriptions pushed earnings up and spread out cash flows. Low rates made equities look attractive compared to bonds, and buybacks amplified price-to-sales earnings.

In spite of shocks, the European debt crisis, trade frictions, commodity swings, and so on, the trend persisted as growth assets digested bad news. This era reinforced a pattern: early gains were strong, and many investors who waited missed the steep first leg.

The Psychology of a Bull Market

Investor mood frequently establishes the tempo of a bull market. Increasing prices nurture optimism, which attracts new investors, and the cycle continues. This self-reinforcing cycle can extend gains well beyond projections of fair value, then break quickly when sentiment shifts.

Knowing how optimism morphs into excitement, then to complacency, explains why some bull runs go on for years while others burn out sooner. Emotions direct order flow, alter risk appetite, and influence price swings. They bias judgment, as demonstrated by studies that detect more rash decisions during bull markets—buying high, selling low.

Media headlines intensify this arc by echoing strength stories that make the rises seem inescapable. Understanding these drivers is part of being invested with discipline.

Euphoria

Euphoria is when everyone thinks prices can only go up. Risk warnings blur. Tales of slam dunks drown out cautious arithmetic and reality tests get waived away.

Go prices ahead of earnings and volumes go berserk. Speculative corners, small-cap darlings, hot themes, and new issues often head the parade because they hold out the promise of velocity.

These times don’t have a scheduled conclusion. They usually end quickly, with hard corrections that chase down a catalyst everyone decided to overlook.

FOMO

FOMO — fear of missing out — fuels late-stage buying when friends, feeds, and pundits laud every dip as a gift. Even prudent investors succumb to the temptation.

Cash that waited on the sideline is pushed in, sometimes in a lump, as buyers chase leaders at stretched prices. Volatility increases because fresh capital is restless and trades more.

The risk here is simple: entering near peaks with little margin for error. A plan helps. Pre-determined rules for buys and trims, regular rebalancing, and defined bands for position size keep decisions disciplined.

FOMO connects to “asset drift,” where winners balloon and the portfolio becomes aggressive without any active decision. A quarterly check can flag it. If allocations shifted too distant from target, sell a piece of the winners and refill the slowpokes, even when it seems counterintuitive. That little habit can shave years off your progress.

Overconfidence

Extended runs of returns can make risks seem smaller and talent appear larger. Confidence is good, but overconfidence lures bigger bets, slim cushions and inadequate diversification across industries or geographies.

It encourages rule-stretching—jumping stops, overlooking cash flow patterns, or brushing aside policy changes. Warning signs are often plain: earnings quality slips while price keeps rising; indexes climb while fewer stocks lead; credit spreads stop narrowing.

Periodic portfolio reviews and easy ‘if–then’ guardrails decelerate this descent. Anchor risk to realities, not feelings. Include a short rationale for each position. If those reasons fracture, act.

Review base rates for bull market lengths and drawdowns, and vet your plan against them. Stay curious, not cocky.

The Anatomy of the End

Bull markets don’t come to an end on a headline or a chart. Tops happen when economic cracks, technical fatigue, and sentiment shifts align, often influenced by market trends. History tells us that long bull market uptrends can extend for years, averaging 3.8 years, with the longest modern run lasting around 11 years before the pandemic bear market. This means signals come in waves and with static.

Economic Signals

Slowing GDP growth is the classic early tell. It has a habit of appearing alongside climbing unemployment and weaker company profits as margins are squeezed. When fewer sectors are supporting the advance and breadth narrows, the market’s base weakens, even when indexes still appear stout on the surface.

Central banks do matter. Tightening policy or rising policy rates often come before reversals as the cost of credit climbs and risk appetite cools. Inflation concerns pile on, eating away at real incomes and driving consumers to retrench.

*rpm – Watch spending and confidence surveys. Lower consumer expenditures can trickle through into revenue misses and earnings downgrades. Other commentators caution that elevated U.S. Debt, ballooning deficits, and a sliding dollar might prepare the market for a significant decline.

Macro data releases are the canary in the coal mine. Follow GDP, employment, wage revisions, inflation, and retail sales. Unanticipated shocks, such as geopolitics, policy, or a global slowdown, can push a late-stage cycle into a correction or more.

Market Indicators

Technical signs often indicate a market reversal before the narrative catches up. Moving averages flatten and roll over, while stock prices can no longer reclaim the critical 50 and 200-day lines. Breadth deteriorates as fewer stocks make new highs, and the percentage of names above their 200-day moving average declines—a useful barometer signaling that leadership is diminishing in the current bull market.

Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, may diverge: the index pushes to a new high while the RSI prints a lower high, suggesting a potential downturn. Additionally, failed breakouts and lower volumes on rallies indicate that traders are becoming fatigued. In the late stages of a bull run, short-sellers may get squeezed as long uptrends persist, extending the timeline but not changing the outcome.

Checklist for late-stage monitoring includes trend analysis (price versus 50/200-day), breadth (advance-decline lines, percentage above the 200-day), momentum (RSI/MACD divergences), and volume patterns (fading on up days, spikes on down days). Leadership shifts can be observed as defensive sectors outperform while prior leaders lag, often foreshadowing a market downturn.

Sentiment Shifts

The tone reverses initially. First, there is optimism, then caution, then fear. Press focuses on dangers, and bad news gets a greater price effect as purchasers recede.

Organizations tend to jump the gun. When they turn to cash or defensive assets, big blocks bang the tape and drag indexes down quick. Remain objective. Screen headlines, apply rules, shield profits with stops or phased taking of profits.

A bull market can fizzle after sectors begin to lag and fewer stocks are adding to the advance.

Navigating a Bull Market

They go up way longer and way more than anyone expects. They’ve averaged 1,866 days and a climb of roughly 180%. History displays a more usual increase of 115% in 2.7 years. Initial rallies can be brisk—the opening month has returned an average of 13.6% and the first three months 25.3%—but corrections of 10% or more have been frequent.

New bull markets begin in the midst of bad news and can be punctuated by steep drops that come in under the 20% decline that defines a bear market. The market may even retest lows, albeit after a 20% rally, making confirmation late.

Stay Invested

It’s a disciplined plan that keeps you on board with the bull market as it develops. Bulls are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and mature on optimism, so the best gains can come when sentiment still seems frail. Attempting to call tops or waiting for the ‘all clear’ is a gamble that you’ll miss the most powerful early months.

History tells us bear markets, on average, lose 35% and last less than a year. Selling late in fear and buying back late in relief is an expensive cycle. Establish strict guidelines for periodic investing—say every month or quarter—so you invest through the noise instead of chasing headlines.

That habit minimizes regret when steep, momentary dips appear within a big trend.

1. Compounds gains across the full span of the cycle.
2. Lowers the odds of missing fast early rebounds.
3. Spreads entry points, easing timing risk.
4. Keeps focus on goals instead of daily swings.

Diversify

• Diversify regions such as the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and emerging markets to steer clear of home bias.
• Balance styles (growth and value) and sizes (large, mid, small).
• Top it off with some bonds of different durations and qualities to smooth total returns.
• Add real assets, such as commodities, listed infrastructure, or REITs, for inflation shocks.
• Steer clear of single-theme concentration. Cap any one sector at a fixed amount.

Diversification comes to the rescue when a bull market stumbles, as downturns tend to hit sectors unevenly. A tech-led surge can reverse while energy or health care holds firm.

Revisit the blend as cycles shift. Long bulls lead to asset drift, turning your portfolio more aggressive with not one change from you. Prune leaders and top up laggards to maintain risk.

Rebalance

Make a schedule, quarterly or annual, and adhere to it, with 5% bands as a trigger. Rebalancing secures profits from the best performers and redirects capital to where it has stronger forward potential.

It reins in risk that sneaks up as winners balloon. It’s a basic habit, but it represents a guardrail when volatility hits and headlines lure emotional dials. Even in bull markets that feature 10% corrections or quick sub-20% slumps, discipline trumps impulse and keeps the plan connected to the long-term objectives.

Conclusion

Bull runs can’t last forever. Most last for years. A couple extend near to ten years. The 2009 to 2020 run lasted approximately 11 years. Others peter out quickly, such as the knife-like spike in 2020 that was nipped within months. That tug of war lives in sentiment, liquidity, and interest rates. Indicators accumulate toward the finish. Hype spikes as well. Breadth has thinned. Heads get tired. Risk sneaks in silent and then noisy.

To keep sane, use rules you can keep. Establish a strategy for purchases, reductions, and liquidity. Measure price, profit, and debt, not hype. Take notes. Try moves small size first. Think in terms of duration, not days. A sure road trumps a speculative road.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a bull market?

How long do bull markets last? It’s commonly characterized as a 20% or more increase from a recent low, often driven by positive investor sentiment and rising stock prices.

How long do bull markets typically last?

According to long-term market data, bull markets typically last around 4 to 5 years, although certain sectors may experience fluctuations. Others can run longer, like the current bull market from 2009 to 2020.

What usually drives a bull market?

Key factors include increasing corporate profits, economic growth, and accommodative monetary policy, which support positive investor sentiment. Innovation and productivity gains might lengthen the current bull market cycle.

How do bull markets usually end?

They tend to finish when market conditions get tight, often triggered by increasing interest rates, elevated inflation, or an external shock. Typical catalysts include decelerating earnings and expensive valuations, with warning signs like rising volatility and weaker breadth in certain sectors.

What are the main risks during a bull market?

Dangers in the stock market include overvaluation, concentration in a couple of hot sectors, excessive leverage, and herd behavior. Performance chasing can lead to poor investment decisions, resulting in bad entries and steep pullbacks even during a bull run.

How can investors navigate a bull market effectively?

Take a scheme to diversify across assets and consider your investment goals. Rebalance to control risk and concentrate on quality and earnings, especially during market downturns. Maintain a long-term perspective and an emergency stash while thinking about professional advice.

How can I tell if a bull market is healthy?

Broad participation across sectors and stable credit markets are essential for a durable bull market, with earnings growth supporting prices and reasonable volatility. However, when gains rely on a handful of stocks or leverage, the risks for traders can significantly increase.

Featured Image by Brigitte Werner from Pixabay